Record El Niño could cause up to 450,000 extra deaths by February

A team of climate and health researchers has warned that the unprecedented heat generated by the current record‑breaking El Niño could cause up to 450,000 additional deaths worldwide by February if immediate mitigation measures are not implemented. The projection, based on a synthesis of temperature anomalies, historical mortality data and vulnerability assessments, links the surge in extreme heat to heightened risks of heat‑related illness, vector‑borne diseases and food‑security crises across the most exposed regions.

The analysis highlights that low‑income countries in South Asia, Sub‑Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America are likely to bear the greatest burden, where limited health infrastructure and high baseline rates of malnutrition amplify the impact of rising temperatures. Researchers stress that rapid actions—such as expanding early‑warning systems, strengthening health‑care capacity, improving water and shelter provisions, and accelerating climate‑adaptation investments—are essential to curb the projected mortality. The study calls on governments and international agencies to prioritize these interventions to prevent the anticipated loss of life.